‘total return’ BDC portfolios due to its higher than average historical and projected total returns. After putting this report together I have upgraded its risk profile which has a direct impact on implied pricing. The price has fallen over 10% in less than two weeks and I now consider it a ‘Buy’. Personally I will be looking for resistance and buying momentum (that could be this morning) and then start a position for my personal BDC portfolio.
The reason for upgrading its risk profile is the willingness of management to make long-term decisions in the best interest of the shareholders instead of trying to temporarily cover dividends by quickly growing the portfolio and potentially sacrificing credit quality and/or portfolio yields. This means that over the next two quarters I anticipate a lack of dividend coverage from net investment income (“NII”). Management has stated this is not the immediate concern and will continue to selectively grow the portfolio as well as sell marginalized assets in this ‘frothy’ lending environment in an effort to improve credit quality and maintain higher than average yields.
HTGC is an internally managed BDC with a lower operating cost than most BDCs that allows it to sit on cash without paying a base management fee and no incentive fees to potentially drive decisions that are not in the best interest of shareholders. HTGC has a large amount of growth capital with future debt and equity at a lower cost than most and is potentially the most well positioned BDC for rising interest rates with over 99% of debt investments at variable rates (and low floors) and 100% of borrowings at fixed rates.
This article discusses the pros and cons of investing in HTGC along with earnings projections, dividend sustainability and growth potential over the coming quarters including best and worst case scenarios as well as key risk considerations, updated rankings/pricing compared to the other 25 BDCs that I follow.
- Interest rate sensitivity analysis
- Timing for future share issuances
- Projected total returns compared to the other BDCs
- Price target based on expected total returns
- Pricing based on multiples of NAV and projected earnings
- Overall rankings and recommendations
- HTGC: March 2014 Report
- PNNT: February 2014 Report
- FDUS: February 2014 Report
- AINV: February 2014 Report
- PSEC: February 2014 Report
- TCRD: January 2014 Report
- NMFC: January 2014 Report
- TCAP: January 2014 Report
- TICC: January 2014 Report
- TCPC: January 2014 Report
- ARCC: December 2013 Report
- MCC Update: Projections, Returns, Pricing and Recommendations
- GBDC Update: Projections, Pricing, Recommendations
- PSEC: Sustainable High-Yields?
- FSC: Time to Buy or to Sell?
- Main Street Capital: The BDC BDC?